The Daily Shape of Momentum - still in BETA, and still under testing and tweaking. Posted for subscribers at or near the opening each morning. These sample intraday graphs are generated by our proprietary modeling algorithms, and posted at or near the daily RTH opening for the U.S.A. markets. We find them quite accurate but also can be totally wrong. Outside events, data releases spiking index prices, etc. seem to disrupt the natural flow of the market's movement and these projections of the path of momentum. The algorithm uses many of the same data that are used for generating our timing models for the indexes. The daily and intraday data includes but is not limited to detrended price, price filtered, volume treatments and patterns, interest rates, etc. The treatment by the algorithm assumes 3 segments: morning session, a shorter midday session, then the afternoon session. The closing 15 to 30 minutes direction and level are always uncertain, hence the red line. The green line represents a summation of the dense scatter plot produced by the program. The plot is parsed into 5 minute data points time and relative position to the other data points. Then that view is transferred to the graphic, such as those below. We make no claim as to accurate sessions or usefulness, but we believe the daily graph is near 70% on the mark. We haven't kept a tally because that is a subjective view. If the time and direction of an intraday data point is off by more than 5 or 10 minutes, we consider it incorrect. If we ever trade it, then we can measure its trading accuracy. We use it as a guide for the day's action. Remember! This is not price, but the representation of projected momentum of price movements. Here is one that was nearly perfect.
But the very next session, Friday, June 27th, was totally wrong for the morning session. That makes the balance of the afternoon session's accuracy potentially difficult.
WBB Full credit to our Group member Tim Tam, known as TimTam or TT, for developing the algo, the test, the backtest, and to all Group members who contributed the idea and how to build this handy tool. A few more recent samples -
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This information is for educational and informational purposes only. The information and data that we trade on is based in the various levels below. It is for our personal use and is shared with you for solely informational purposes. We will update each Monday morning before the open (Tuesday, if market is closed Monday), Wednesday afternoon before the closing, and Friday midday. We will also inject updates when we see sound trend changes that can be tradable. This is our preferred frequency and will be our basic service that will be available at this website. We will send a few update messages between those as events and action may change our views.
Our Mission
Our mission is to improve rates of return in a personal portfolio, or a managed portfolio by sharing the results of our timing algorithms and models, and our market opinions with serious and experienced investors and traders for their personal applications.
All rights reserved and defended, by W.B. Busin Group Publishing, LLC and its related partners. ©2008
We are bearish for the short term, intermediate term bearish, and long term bearish, that is, until the market changes our view.
God bless all of you,
W. B. Busin
W.B. Busin Group Publishing© -2008 All Rights Reserved
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