Gold!! Gold!!We have received so many emails in recent days about gold and the U.S. Dollar that we will comment about the tone of the sentiment behind the emails and answer some questions. First a look at the USD versus the major trading economies of the US. Those currencies, seen in the respective currency cross pairs, and their economies are driving much of gold's momentum (USD denominated) in recent weeks. Our $1,700 target for a high is a conservative target for the long term compared to another more aggressive model's target of $2,250 to $2,500. The models include the essence of modeled projections for the U.S. economy and the USD. Gold's recent blowoff high and current downturn is the end of an upward phase and subsequent correction as we see it, and not a bear market beginning for bullion. When gold was breaking out above $460 over 2 years ago, I would have been clown for the day if I had written about $2,500 gold. But that is where the data and its projections came from. The projections have been reinforced with time. I don't trade gold and don't want to. The recent margin highjackings are a good reason to avoid trading the physical futures. It always happens and kills off the pyramid positions for many under capitalized traders. Three important factors saturate a high gold price. They are perceptions and expectations of inflation and deflation, interest rates and currency differentials. Monitor those factors and each of their multiple internal factors and technicals, such as, interest rate differentials between economies and their week to week changes. It should not take longer than 30-40 hours per week. Don't forget the aberrant geopolitical surprises. The sane alternative for investors and traders of gold is to buy dips just like this one. It is a bull market, a long bull market. The actual intrinsic value of gold is usually less than the futures price, as an upward phasing high shows. That is another reason why it drops like it is now from an emotionally driven parabola. You can myriad technical and fundamental reasons but they sound the same. The answer to Why? something moves is much less important than the observation that it is moving or has changed directions. A hidden or lesser known fact is that investors and traders will flee to gold during extreme uncertainty when they fear the onset of inflationary times AND deflationary times. "Lower interest rates = recession" to some, and then to others low rates resurrect inflation fears. It can signal both at the same time. Yes, both inflation and deflation occurring at the same time. You might think I am off my rocker there. Look around you and remember this, you are living in those exact times. Uncertainty, as high as I have ever seen it. Inflation and deflation. Think about it. W. B. Busin 18 March 2008
|
Click here if you want to see the current Stock Market Sentiments from the W.B Busin Group. Our new Sentiment website is www.DailyIndexSentiment.com
Our Mission
Our mission is to improve rates of return in a personal portfolio, or a managed portfolio by sharing the results of our timing algorithms and models, and our market opinions with serious and experienced investors and traders for their personal applications.
All rights reserved and defended, by W.B. Busin Group Publishing, LLC and its related partners. ©2009
We are bearish for the short term, intermediate term bearish, and long term bearish, that is, until the market changes our view.
God bless all of you,
W. B. Busin
W.B. Busin Group Publishing© -2009 All Rights Reserved
Our information and opinions about markets are for educational and entertainment purposes only. We are not in any way a trading or investment advisor. We publish our opinions about markets. We may or may not, at any time, have personal and individual positions in the markets or instruments we cover in our publications. We publish our intended trades at TimerTrac.com through the newsletter and website before we enter them at TimerTrac.com. You will always know in advance, what we will do at TimerTrac for the indexes we cover.
All information or opinions expressed in our publications are for your personal use only. Printing, selling, sharing or any re-publication, in any way, by any means or media, of this information is prohibited by United States copyright laws. Any violation will result in the individual or individuals being banned from our services. We protect our intellectual property rights.
We do not solicit, manage, invest or trade monies or funds for anyone but our own assets. We list the U.S. government disclaimers below because we believe they are important reminders of how easy it is to lose all or more of your investment or trading capital. The risk of ruin is always present. Use risk management and stop loss measures on every trade or investment.
"Manage your risks or they will destroy you." W. B. Busin
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Home | Free Access | FAQ | MEMBER AREA | Subscription Agreement | Disclaimer | Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Site Map